Home

U.S. Study Predicts 1 Million New Dementia Cases Annually by 2060

Save as PDF

By any measure, the statistics on Alzheimer’s disease are alarming. The Alzheimer’s Association reports that nearly 7 million Americans currently live with the disease – which, of course, means their family members do, too. What’s more, roughly one-third of older adults will pass away with some form of dementia, not necessarily as the cause of death, but as a fact of life.

Now we have updated data that reveals how much worse the issue is going to become over the next 35 years. To get an overview, we’re turning to this recent article from the Washington Post that suggests a doubling of new dementia cases by 2060. By then, researchers report, there will be 1 million new cases of memory-robbing dementia diagnosed in the U.S. every year.

The Post article was written by science reporter Carolyn Johnson. As we read it, we were struck by two main points. First, dementia is something families simply have to prepare for as they plan for their future. Second, as the article observes, there are things we each can do to mitigate the risks of dementia. If a pattern of healthier lifestyle choices can improve our odds of cognitive health, then we say, “Bring it on.” 

With that in mind, let’s take a deeper look.

Experts Project 15 Million Dementia Cases by 2060

Johnson begins with this unsettling statistic: “New cases of dementia will double by 2060, when 1 million U.S. adults are projected to develop the memory-robbing condition each year, according to a sobering new study published Monday in the journal Nature Medicine.”

This new analysis states that after age 55, 4 in 10 adults are likely to develop some form of dementia. “That’s in part because the new analysis is based on decades of close follow-up, including regular cognitive assessments, of a racially diverse group of people — a quarter of whom were Black and face an increased risk of dementia,” Johnson explains.

Josef Coresh, founding director of the Optimal Aging Institute at the New York University Grossman School of Medicine, puts it this way: “If you start at age 55 and go forward until your 95th birthday, there are two options: You die before dementia, or you get to dementia before death.”

He adds that from age 55 to 75, the overall risk of developing dementia is only about 4 percent, but this figure increases substantially over the ensuing two decades. It’s particularly high after a person’s 85th birthday when the likelihood approaches one in three.

Long-Running Study Provides More Accurate Data

The new analysis is based on the long-running Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study started in 1987. The study, funded by the National Institutes of Health, was originally designed to track cardiovascular risk.

Johnson writes, “The population the researchers followed includes more than15,000 people from Maryland, North Carolina, Mississippi and Minnesota. The geographic and racial diversity of the sample helped underscore the risk inequities: Black people, women and carriers of a gene variant called APOE4 that’s linked to Alzheimer’s disease are more likely to develop dementia.”

But Coresh says that the increase in the potential number of people developing dementia is mainly driven by the aging population; for the first time in history, more people are projected to be living in the age brackets when the condition is most common over time.

Conventional Studies Find Dementia Tough to Measure

Theo Vos, an epidemiologist and emeritus professor at the University of Washington (not involved in the study), says that dementia is a difficult condition to measure consistently. The norms around listing it as the cause of death vary by country and have changed over time. The criteria for diagnosis have also varied and evolved.  

“The strength of this study is that they followed people up over time, and they kept probing for signs that would confirm, or not, a diagnosis of dementia. That’s a strength because with dementia being a progressive disease, it may be hard in the beginning to say is this, or is this not dementia. But give it another three, four, five years and it’s pretty obvious whether it is or is not,” Vos says.

Risk of Developing Dementia “Not Written in Stone”

“What should give people some hope is that there is increasing evidence that this fate isn’t written in stone,” Johnson writes. According to research commissioned by medical journal The Lancet, 45 percent of cases of dementia globally are potentially preventable.

Johnson explains, “Managing the risk factors that contribute to heart disease, including controlling and preventing high blood pressure, high cholesterol, obesity and diabetes, can also help protect against dementia. Treating hearing loss and avoiding social isolation can be protective. Avoiding smoking and excessive alcohol consumption can also reduce the risk.”

Coresh adds, “That tends to reduce the risk at any given age — people get more years free of dementia.”

New Data on Lifestyle Changes is a “Wake-up Call”

Maria Carrillo, chief science officer of the Alzheimer’s Association (also not involved in the study) called it “a wake-up call.” She says that a study—set to be released this summer—is currently rigorously testing the effect of specific lifestyle changes on cognitive function in more than 2,000 older adults.

“In the U.S., we live in a very unique situation. The disparities … that impact health are fairly significant,” Carrillo says. “It sounds very daunting. What I can say about the numbers, though, is that this is also a time where we’re learning so much more about those underlying causes — and that many of them actually can be mitigated.”

In a cloudy outlook, that definitely represents the silver lining.

Rajiv Nagaich – Your Retirement Planning Coach and Guide

The long-awaited book by Rajiv Nagaich, called Your Retirement: Dream or Disaster, has been released and is now available to the public. Retirement: Dream or Disaster joins Rajiv’s ground-breaking DVD series and workbook, Master Your Future, as a powerful planning tool in your retirement toolbox. As a friend of AgingOptions, we know you’ll want to get your copy and spread the word.

You’ve heard Rajiv say it repeatedly: 70 percent of retirement plans will fail. If you know someone whose retirement turned into a nightmare when they were forced into a nursing home, went broke paying for care, or became a burden to their families – and you want to make sure it doesn’t happen to you – then this book is must-read.

Through stories, examples, and personal insights, Rajiv takes us along on his journey of expanding awareness about a problem that few are willing to talk about, yet it’s one that results in millions of Americans sleepwalking their way into their worst nightmares about aging. Rajiv lays bare the shortcomings of traditional retirement planning advice, exposes the biases many professionals have about what is best for older adults, and much more.

Rajiv then offers a solution: LifePlanning, his groundbreaking approach to retirement planning. Rajiv explains the essential planning steps and, most importantly, how to develop the framework for these elements to work in concert toward your most deeply held retirement goals.

Your retirement can be the exciting and fulfilling life you’ve always wanted it to be. Start by reading and sharing Rajiv’s important message. And remember, Age On, everyone!

(originally reported at www.washingtonpost.com)

Need assistance planning for your successful retirement? Give us a call! 1.877.762.4464

Learn how 70% of retirement plans fail and what you can do to avoid this.

Find out more about LifePlanning

0
Your Cart is empty!

It looks like you haven't added any items to your cart yet.

Browse Products
Powered by Caddy
Skip to content